2.1 Purpose
This report documents the actions taken by the Pikes Peak Area Council of Governments (PPACG) to incorporate regional Greenhouse Gas (GHG) reduction strategies into the planning and modeling processes of the 2050 Long Range Transportation Plan (LRTP) and satisfy the requirements of Colorado’s transportation greenhouse gas rule specified in the Code of Colorado Regulations (2 CCR 601-22).
The planning measures, modeling methods, and emissions analysis results documented in this report demonstrate that the 2050 Long Range Transportation Plan complies with these regulations, and that no additional GHG Mitigation Measures, and by extension an annual Mitigation Action Plan, are necessary for PPACG to satisfy the rule’s transportation GHG reduction requirements.
The approval of this GHG Transportation Report by the Transportation Commission is a prerequisite for the 2050 Long Range Transportation Plan to be considered fully compliant with all state and federal rules and regulations when adopted by the PPACG Board of Directors in 2025.
2.2 Background
In June 2021, the Colorado legislature passed Senate Bill (SB) 21-260, titled “Sustainability of the Transportation System.” This legislation established new funding sources for transportation and mandated that the state Transportation Commission (TC) create guidelines and procedures to address greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in transportation planning. It also directed the Colorado Department of Transportation (CDOT) to update statewide transportation planning rules to incorporate GHG reduction goals into specific planning documents adopted by CDOT and the state’s Metropolitan Planning Organizations (MPOs).
The result of this effort was the adoption of the “Rules Governing Statewide Transportation Planning Process and Transportation Planning Regions” (2 CCR 601-22) by the Transportation Commission (TC) in December 2021. These rules address the GHG reduction requirements outlined in SB21-260 by setting GHG reduction targets for CDOT and each Metropolitan Planning Organization (MPO) across multiple forecast years. The initial GHG emissions projected from the forecasted land use and transportation network in each MPO’s adopted plan were developed by CDOT in collaboration with Cambridge Systematics using the Energy Emissions Reduction and Policy Analysis Tool (EERPAT).
Figure 1: Table of GHG emissions in Million Metric Tons (MMT) of CO2e (Carbon Dioxide equivalent) estimated by CDOT for the Pikes Peak MPO in 2030, 3040, and 2050.
| 2030 | 2040 | 2050 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Initial GHG Emissions Estimated by CDOT for the Pikes Peak Area MPO | 2.2 | 2.0 | 2.3 |
CDOT used the initial GHG emissions estimates, along with each MPO’s share of statewide Vehicle Miles Travelled (VMT), to determine the required GHG reduction amounts in Million Metric Tons (MMT) of CO2e (Carbon Dioxide equivalent) for three forecast years: 2030, 2040, and 2050. These reduction amounts are reported for each MPO in Table 1 of the rule.
Figure 2: Table 1 in 2 CCR 601-22 identifies the GHG reduction amounts for PPACG in Million Metric Tons (MMT) of CO2e (Carbon Dioxide equivalent) emissions in 2030, 2040, and 2050
| Regional Areas | 2025 Reduction Level (MMT) | 2030 Reduction Level (MMT) | 2040 Reduction Level (MMT) | 2050 Reduction Level (MMT) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DRCOG | 0.27 | 0.82 | 0.63 | 0.37 |
| NFRMPO | 0.04 | 0.12 | 0.11 | 0.07 |
| PPACG | N/A | 0.15 | 0.12 | 0.07 |
| GVMPO | N/A | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.01 |
| PACOG | N/A | 0.03 | 0.02 | 0.01 |
| CDOT/Non-MPO | 0.12 | 0.36 | 0.30 | 0.17 |
| Total | 0.43 | 1.5 | 1.2 | 0.7 |
Currently, the Long Range Transportation Plan is the only applicable planning document for which PPACG is required to model GHG emission reductions; other PPACG planning products like the Transportation Improvement Program (TIP) do not require GHG modeling to comply with the rule.
2.3 Planning Area
The Pikes Peak Area Council of Governments (PPACG) boundary encompasses El Paso, Park, and Teller Counties, and serves as a regional forum for cities, towns, tribal governments, counties, transit agencies, and state agencies operating within the region to address common issues. While PPACG administers a variety of programs and services across the entire region, the Long Range Transportation Plan focuses on the Metropolitan Planning Organization (MPO) area.
Federally mandated and funded, MPOs are required to facilitate transportation planning for Census Urbanized Areas (UZA) with populations exceeding 50,000 people. The Pikes Peak Area MPO conducts long-range transportation planning through the LRTP and uses it to guide short-range programming of select federal and state transportation funds. The MPO area includes the cities of Colorado Springs, Fountain, Manitou Springs, and Woodland Park; the towns of Monument, Palmer Lake, and Green Mountain Falls; and urban portions of unincorporated El Paso and Teller Counties.
Figure 3. Map to the PPACG region and the MPO area
The Long-Range Transportation Plan (LRTP) is updated every five years and includes planning horizons of at least 20 years. Its primary purpose is to establish the region’s transportation vision and goals, evaluate the system as a whole, and identify strategies to optimize the use of public funds in achieving these goals. The LRTP also provides a framework for decision-makers to consider the broader social, economic, and environmental impacts of transportation and land-use choices. Consequently, all transportation projects with the potential to significantly affect transportation or air quality within the metropolitan planning area must be included in the plan.
A critical component of the LRTP is the regional Travel Demand Model (TDM), a tool used to estimate future traffic volumes, average speeds, and travel patterns by analyzing factors such as population changes, land use, employment, and the transportation network. Updating planning assumptions and model inputs like residential locations, job distribution, housing density, transportation projects, and mode choice in the planning forecast can significantly influence predicted traffic volumes and roadway speeds. Projects included in the LRTP are integrated into the TDM to evaluate their impacts on the forecasted travel network and determine their alignment with the plan’s goals, including GHG emission reductions.
Transportation projects outside the MPO are evaluated separately by CDOT and incorporated into their modeling process to meet the GHG reduction targets established for non-MPO areas of the state.
2.4 GHG Modeling Procedure
The GHG rule requires new transportation plans to incorporate projects and funding choices designed to model a reduction in GHG emissions relative to a baseline GHG amount in each of the prescribed forecast years. The baseline GHG amount is determined from the adopted plan in place when the rule became effective on January 30, 2022.
The baseline plan for the Pikes Peak Area MPO is the 2045 Long-Range Transportation Plan (LRTP), adopted by PPACG in January 2020. This plan was in effect as of January 30, 2022, and its forecasted population estimates, land use assumptions, and transportation network were used to establish the GHG reduction targets outlined for the MPO in Table 1 of the rule.
The new transportation plan, the 2050 LRTP, must demonstrate GHG emission reductions that meet or exceed the targets recorded in Table 1 of the rule for the compliance years 2030, 2040, and 2050, compared to the adopted 2045 plan.
Greenhouse gas emissions are estimated from these plans using the MOtor Vehicle Emission Simulator (MOVES), an emissions modeling program developed by the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). MOVES utilizes many factors to estimate surface transportation GHG emissions, including:
- Traffic volumes and average speeds by time of day
- The type and age of vehicles in the region
- The vehicle fleet mix by roadway type
- Meteorological conditions
- Fuel types and fuel economy of the vehicle fleet mix
- The adoption rate of electric vehicles into the fleet mix over time
PPACG’s only input for emissions modeling is the traffic volume and average speed along each roadway for each hour of a typical workday, generated by the regional Travel Demand Model. All other factors used in the MOVES emissions analysis are developed and maintained by the Air Pollution Control Division (APCD) within the Colorado Department of Public Health and Environment (CDPHE).
The GHG rule requires an Intergovernmental Agreement (IGA) between the APCD, CDOT, and PPACG to define the roles and responsibilities of each agency in conducting the emissions modeling. This includes establishing modeling standards and assumptions for PPACG’s Travel Demand Model and specifying the methods and assumptions used by APCD to estimate the millions of metric tons (MMT) of carbon dioxide equivalent (CO2e) emissions generated by the model for each compliance year.